Oscar 2007 Predictions Part 3 - Best Pic, etc.

It Will Be Marty’s Year (Sort Of)

The buzz is huge for Martin Scorsese this year as well as the pressure. If he wins people will scream it’s about time! If he loses, people will say well, it wasn’t his best work. I for one believe Marty will win best director and not best picture, but let’s discuss!

Best Picture

Babel
I think that this is the best film (by far) of the bunch. After much early buzz the film seems to losing ground. Too bad, as it redefined a genre. This is what a best pic should do. (See My Full Review Here)
Buzz Factor - 7

The Departed
Not Marty’s best film by any stretch of the imagination but it just might have the best cast and all around performances. He might win it because of the pressure put on Academy members to reward him for a stellar career. (See My Full Review Here) Buzz Factor - 8

Letters From Iwo Jima
Clint’s darkhorse picture. It was a companion piece to the disappointing “Flag of Our Fathers”. The dismal showing of that film hurt Clint’s chances for Oscar gold once again. But never count out the Academy’s love for good old Clint Eastwood. Buzz Factor - 5

Little Miss Sunshine
The inclusion of this film makes it a three way toss up. Everyone knows the Academy doesn’t particularly like comedies. But behind the Departed this film actually has the best chance for Oscar Gold. While the cast was excellent and the story darkly funny, it was shot very pedestrian and it definitely didn’t define the genre. (See My Full Review Here)
Buzz Factor - 8

The Queen
A glorified TV film. Got here because of that damn Helen Mirren.
Buzz Factor - 5

Who will win? (and who should win?)
Babel
I’m going out on a serious limb here as if it’s not Babel than it will be Little Miss Sunshine.
Best Director

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - Babel
Two months ago he was a shoe-in, but now? There has been some backlash against him and this film (damn politics).
Buzz Factor - 5

Martin Scorsese - The Departed
Marty is far and away the favorite here. His win is as close to a sure thing than you will ever see. His daughter said he wasn’t going to attend the Oscars (how ironic if he won) but he told me himself he would be there!
Buzz Factor - 10

Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima
What can be said about Clint? He gets better with age and the Academy adores him. If it wasn’t for “Flags of Our Fathers” he would win best director. As it is he still might win.
Buzz Factor - 7

Stephen Frears - The Queen
No chance in hell.
Buzz Factor - 2

Paul Greengrass - United 93
History is against him as a best director win always accompanies a best pic nom. His film wasn’t nominated for best pic. The last 10 minutes of the film brought chills up and down my spine and made my hair stand on end. He still won’t win. (See My Full Review Here)
Buzz Factor - 4

Who will win? ( and who should win?)
Martin Scorsese of course, are you surprised? Do I need to say anything more?
Best Cinematography

Children of Men
Emmanuel Lubezki’s work in Children of Men (see my full review here) is simply stunning, it is unbelievably flawlessly gorgeous and he deserves the win here. I attended the ASC awards last week and his win there was as telling as it could get. This is only the second time in Oscar history that all the best cinematography noms pictures have NOT been nominated for best picture. So this one is totally up for grabs. We have two magician pictures (The Prestige, The Illusionist) a fantasy pic (Pan’s Labyrinth) a DePalma film (Black Dahlia) and Children of Men.
Best Film Editing

Children of Men
Alfonso Cuarón and Alex Rodríguez have created a flawless look at what could be our society with simultaneously seamless and jarring editing. Although Babel is edited very well it’s too much like all Inarritu’s other films like 21 Grams. United 93 creates a sense of urgency and The Departed has Thelma Schoonmaker (not her best work).

So follow the Oscars with me and check back next week to see how my predictions went!