Janaki's Musings: Oscar 2007 Predictions Part 1

A Very Predictable Year?

Okay, I’m am very late with my Oscar Predictions compared to year’s past. Nothing like dropping my two cents the day before, right?

No excuses but this has been an extremely busy and hectic year for me and many things in my life have been postponed, pushed back or simply ignored. Not that that’s a bad thing! Anyway, here we go!

This is going to be the first of three blogs on who will win and who I want to win! Let’s get started.

I talked to many industry insiders to gauge the buzz this year and it was generally split down the middle with half saying that there is no sure thing with most categories and that this one helluva confusing year. The other half say there are sure things all around. I happen to believe in the second opinion that many categories this year are sure things and are very predictable, in fact I will go as far as to say that this is one of the most predictable years of my lifetime! With the Oscars coming earlier this year (last year March 5th) “buzz” is very telling and even though there is seemingly no clear cut dominations (Noms are spread pretty evenly) I still think that there will be very few surprises. Of course what the hell do I know? I am listing the Buzz Factor from 1 -10.

Click on this link to print a your own Oscar Ballot and see if I’m even close!

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio - Blood Diamond
I didn’t see this film but critics say his performance was the best thing about the film. This is kind of a surprise since his performance in “The Departed” was more well received. See my Departed review here. His nom is more of an affirmation about his acting skills. He won’t win. Buzz Factor 6.

Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
I recently saw this film and yes his performance was extraordinary but he also doesn’t have a chance because no one saw this film. Besides he doesn’t have the body of work and this is also an affirmation. Buzz Factor 5.

Peter O’Toole - Venus
What can I say about Peter? He is only one of my favorite actors of all time. To me he should have won for “Lawrence of Arabia” in 1963. People talk about about Scorsese not winning after 5 noms but what about O’Toole? 8 nominations and zero wins! What a crime, he better win this year because nobody wants to be the Susan Lucci of awards nominations. And oh yeah, his performance was one of his best of an unbelievable and storied career. He won an honorary Oscar a few years ago and he almost didn’t accept it saying that he would still like to win one outright. O’Toole could be the darkhorse here and is certainly the sentimental favorite. Buzz Factor - 8

Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness
Smith finally did away with swagger and played a real character and showed he can act. His reward? An Oscar nom but not a win. Buzz Factor - 4

Forest Whitaker - Last King of Scotland
True, the Academy loves actors playing real historic figures and actors are usually rewarded for their efforts. Having said that, the movie was criticized as almost being a TV film, yes his performance stood out but no one saw the film and it is his first nom (even though he has been around forever). Besides, did you see his acceptance speeches? Emotion is good but incoherent babbling is not. Buzz Factor - 9.

Who will win? (And who I want to win)
Peter O’Toole
The odds are in Forest Whitaker’s favor right now because he has won every major award up to this but the Academy likes to throw a monkey wrench in every now and then. Of all the categories, this where the major upset will come. Peter O’Toole will be rewarded for this performance and more importantly for his body of work, which has been the pattern of the Academy.

Best Actress

Penelope Cruz - Volver
I was surprised here as Penelope can’t act her way out of a paper bag, oh and she should probably wear that paper bag over her head. She should just be in Pedro Almodovar films and never attempt to speak English again. Buzz Factor - 3

Judi Dench - Notes On A Scandal
This was such a different performance for Dame Judi, blah, blah, blah . . . Have I mentioned yet that I fucking hate fucking Judi Dench? Well, there it is.
Buzz Factor - 5

Helen Mirren - The Queen
Fucking Judi Dench in training. She has won everything this year and an Oscar is also in her future. EVERYONE says this film is like a TV film and no one cares about it, but she just keeps on winning. I’m sooooo tired of these old British actresses coming over here and winning everything!! Buzz Factor - 10

Meryl Streep -The Devil Wears Prada
Hated this film with a passion but liked Meryl’s performance (See my review here). She has won her share of Oscars but not this year. Buzz Factor - 5

Kate Winslet - Little Children
She had been nominated 5 times and she still won’t win. She’ll only win one when she is an old British actress, then she’ll win all the time. Young British actresses? Not a chance. Buzz Factor - 4

Who will win?
Helen Mirren, unfortunately.

Who do I want to win?
Kate Winslet
She is one of the best actresses out there, someone give her an award!!

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine (see my review here)
Arkin was hilariously profane in his limited screen time which may come back to haunt him. Arkin was last nominated in the late 60’s, so his buzz o’meter is rising! This might be the other upset. Buzz Factor - 8

Jackie Earle Haley - Little Children
He was a child star (Kelly Leak in the Bad News Bears) was out of the business for nearly 15 years and now is back with two great performances in the same year. The academy loves comebacks, but not this year. Buzz Factor - 5

Djimon Hounsou - Blood Diamond
His performance is everything we’ve seen before. Is he good actor, yes. Will he win an Oscar, no.
Buzz Factor - 3.

Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls
Eddie is the frontrunner here, but problems may still arise. First off, he has never been popular in the Hollywood elite, secondly his performance while extremely good is a little too close (some say) to the parody of James Brown he did years ago on SNL. And with Brown dying last year, people keep bringing that up (like me). On the flip side, his humbleness is very endearing, and everything he’s been through both professionally and personally has culminated in his bravura performance. He created tons of early buzz but Arkin is catching up. Buzz Factor - 9

Mark Wahlberg - The Departed
His nom is surprising here, not because he didn’t do a great job, but because the entire film had amazing acting in it. For him to be singled out in limited screen time (and for basically a one-note performance) is very surprising. Wahlberg has shown himself to be a very good actor and this should be the first of many Oscar noms. He has been rewarded. Buzz Factor - 4

Who will win? (and who should win)
Eddie Murphy
Yes, everyone, his performance is that good. You know what they say, comedic actors make the best dramatic actors.

Best Supporting Actress

Adriana Barraza - Babel (see my review here)
In a film of harrowing performances hers was perhaps the most breathtaking. You could literally feel her pain. Somehow people don’t realize how amazing her performance really was. Buzz Factor - 6

Cate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandal
Cate is one helluva an actress. In my mind everything she does is mesmerizing. However, she doesn’t stand a chance this year. Buzz Factor - 5

Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
She was awesome in this role and her “performance” at the pageant was so funny I fell of my sofa. But she won’t win because the academy doesn’t like comedies. Buzz Factor -4

Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls (see my review here)
Okay, she is the major favorite here. She has one every award this year. Whether you like the film or not, Hudson has turned in one of the most stellar acting debuts ever put on film. She blows away, Foxx and Beyonce every single time she is on screen with them and no one can say that her performance isn’t breathtaking. Hands down she will win in a very tough category, yes, she’s that good. Buzz Factor - 10

Rinko Kikuchi - Babel
Her performance is on par (though very different) than Barraza’s. By far it’s the riskiest performance of all the noms and without speaking a word she conveys vulnerability, sexiness, utter despair and madness. What an amazing revelation of a performance. She still won’t win. Buzz Factor - 7

Who will win? (and who I want to win)
Jennifer Hudson
While the two performances in Babel are absolutely Oscar worthy they hurt each others chances with votes split down the middle paving the way for Hudson to win, very deservedly I might add.